# Statistics: Concepts and Controversies

## Tenth EditionDavid S. Moore; WIlliam I Notz

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Every educated person should be acquainted with statistical reasoning. This book will enable you to make that acquaintance.

*Statistics Concepts and Controversies* isn’t about the tools of statistics, it’s a book on statistical ideas and statistical reasoning and on their relevance to public policy and to the human sciences from medicine to sociology. Welcome to a liberal approach to learning and applying statistics!

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Contents

To the Teacher: Statistics as a Liberal Discipline

SaplingPlus for Statistics

Acknowledgments

Prelude: Making Sense of Statistics

Statistics and You: What Lies ahead in This Book

About the Authors

**PART I Producing Data 1 Where Do Data Come From? **Case Study: An Online Poll

Talking about Data: Individuals and Variables

Observational Studies

Sample Surveys

Census

Experiments

Chapter 1: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

Macmillan Learning Online Resources

Check the Basics

Chapter 1 Exercises

**2 Samples, Good and Bad**

Case Study: Assessing Polls

How to Sample Badly

Simple Random Samples

Can You Trust a Sample?

Chapter 2: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

Macmillan Learning Online Resources

Check the Basics

Chapter 2 Exercises

**3 What Do Samples Tell Us?**

Case Study: Childhood Vaccinations

From Sample to Population

Sampling Variability

Margin of Error and All That

Confidence Statements

Sampling from Large Populations

Statistical Controversies: Should Election Polls Be Banned?

Chapter 3: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

Macmillan Learning Online Resources

Check the Basics

Chapter 3 Exercises

**4 Sample Surveys in the Real World**

Case Study: Obtaining a Sample for a Survey

How Sample Surveys Go Wrong

Sampling Errors

Nonsampling Errors

Wording Questions

How to Live with Nonsampling Errors

Sample Design in the Real World

The Challenge of Internet Surveys

Statistical Controversies: The Harris Online Poll

Probability Samples

Questions to Ask Before You Believe a Poll

Chapter 4: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

Macmillan Learning Online Resources

Check the Basics

Chapter 4 Exercises

What’s the Verdict?

**5 Experiments, Good and Bad**

Case Study: Online vs. Traditional Courses

Talking about Experiments

How to Experiment Badly

Randomized Comparative Experiments

The Logic of Experimental Design

Statistical Significance

How to Live with Observational Studies

Chapter 5: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

Macmillan Learning Online Resources

Check the Basics

Chapter 5 Exercises

What’s the Verdict?

**6 Experiments in the Real World**

Case Study: Caffeine Dependence

Equal Treatment for All

Double-Blind Experiments

Refusals, Nonadherers, and Dropouts

Can We Generalize?

Experimental Design in the Real World

Matched Pairs and Block Designs

Statistical Controversies: Is It or Isn’t It a Placebo?

Chapter 6: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

Macmillan Learning Online Resources

Check the Basics

Chapter 6 Exercises

What’s the Verdict?

**7 Data Ethics **Case Study: Marijuana and Driving Performance

First Principles

Institutional Review Boards

Informed Consent

Confidentiality

Clinical Trials

Statistical Controversies: Hope for Sale?

Behavioral and Social Science Experiments

Chapter 7: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Check the Basics

Chapter 7 Exercises

What’s the Verdict?

**8 Measuring**

Case Study: Measuring Intelligence

Measurement Basics

Know Your Variables

Measurements, Valid and Invalid

Statistical Controversies: Six-Year Graduation Rates, High School GPA, and Standardized Tests

Measurements, Accurate and Inaccurate

Improving Reliability, Reducing Bias

Measuring Psychological and Social Factors

Chapter 8: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Check the Basics

Chapter 8 Exercises

**9 Do the Numbers Make Sense?**

Case Study: Estimating Crowd Size

What Didn’t They Tell Us?

Are the Numbers Consistent with Each Other?

Are the Numbers Plausible?

Are the Numbers Too Good to Be True?

Is the Arithmetic Right?

Is There a Hidden Agenda?

Chapter 9: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

Macmillan Learning Online Resources

Check the Basics

Chapter 9 Exercises

**Part I Review**

Part I Summary

Part I Review Exercises

**PART II Organizing Data 10 Graphs, Good and Bad**

Case Study: Leading Causes of Death

Data Tables

Types of Variables

Pie Charts and Bar Graphs

Beware the Pictogram

Change over Time: Line Graphs

Watch those Scales!

Making Good Graphs

Chapter 10: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Check the Basics

Chapter 10 Exercises

What’s the Verdict?

**11 Displaying Distributions with Graphs**

Case Study: Apartment Rental Prices

Histograms

Interpreting Histograms

Stemplots

Chapter 11: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Check the Basics

Chapter 11 Exercises

**12 Describing Distributions with Numbers**

Case Study: Education and Income

Median and Quartiles

The Five-Number Summary and Boxplots

Statistical Controversies: Income Inequality

Mean and Standard Deviation

Choosing Numerical Descriptions

Chapter 12: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Check the Basics

Chapter 12 Exercises

**13 Normal Distributions**

Case Study: Applying the Normal Distribution to Data

Density Curves

The Center and Variability of a Density Curve

Normal Distributions

The 68–95–99.7 Rule

Standard Scores

Percentiles of Normal Distributions*

Chapter 13: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Check the Basics

Chapter 13 Exercises

**14 Describing Relationships: Scatterplots and Correlation**

Case Study: SAT Scores

Scatterplots

Interpreting Scatterplots

Multiple Variables

Correlation

Understanding Correlation

Chapter 14: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Chapter 14 Exercises

What’s the Verdict?

**15 Describing Relationships: Regression, Prediction, and Causation**

Case Study: Housing Prices

Regression Lines

Regression Equations

Understanding Prediction

Correlation and Regression

The Question of Causation

Statistical Controversies: Gun Control

Evidence for Causation

Correlation, Prediction, and Big Data

Chapter 15: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Check the Basics

Chapter 15 Exercises

What’s the Verdict?

**16 The Consumer Price Index and Government Statistics**

Case Study: Who’s the Greatest Basketball Player of All Time?

Index Numbers

Fixed Market Basket Price Indexes

Using the CPI

Understanding the CPI

Statistical Controversies: Does the CPI Overstate Inflation?

The Place of Government Statistics

The Question of Social Statistics

Chapter 16: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

Macmillan Learning Online Resources

Check the Basics

Chapter 16 Exercises

What’s the Verdict?

**Part II Review**

Part II Summary

Part II Review Exercises

**PART III Chance 17 Thinking about Chance**

Case Study: Shared Birthdays

The Idea of Probability

The Ancient History of Chance

Myths about Chance Behavior

Personal Probabilities

Probability and Risk

Chapter 17: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

Macmillan Learning Online Resources

Check the Basics

Chapter 17 Exercises

**18 Probability Models**

Case Study: Super Bowl Probabilities

Probability Models

Probability Rules

Probability and Odds

Probability Models for Sampling

Chapter 18: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Check the Basics

Chapter 18 Exercises

What’s the Verdict?

**19 Simulation **Case Study: Luck or Cheating?

Where Do Probabilities Come From?

Simulation Basics

Thinking about Independence

More Elaborate Simulations

Chapter 19: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Check the Basics

Chapter 19 Exercises

**20 The House Edge: Expected Values**

Case Study: Better Betting?

Expected Values

The Law of Large Numbers

Thinking about Expected Values

Statistical Controversies: The State of Legalized Gambling

Finding Expected Values by Simulation

Chapter 20: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Check the Basics

Chapter 20 Exercises

What’s the Verdict?

**Part III Review**

Part III Summary

Part III Review Exercises

**PART IV Inference 21 What Is a Confidence Interval?**

Case Study: Social Media Use

Estimating

Estimating with Confidence

Understanding Confidence Intervals

More on Confidence Intervals for a Population Proportion∗

The Sampling Distribution of a Sample Mean∗

Confidence Intervals for a Population Mean*

Chapter 21: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Check the Basics

Chapter 21 Exercises

**22 What Is a Test of Significance?**

Case Study: Political Views

The Reasoning of Statistical Tests of Significance

Hypotheses and P-values

Statistical Significance

Calculating P-values∗

Tests for a Population Mean∗

Chapter 22: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

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Check the Basics

Chapter 22 Exercises

**23 Use and Abuse of Statistical Inference**

Case Study: Boys and Breakfast Ceral

Using Inference Wisely

The Woes of Significance Tests

The Advantages of Confidence Intervals

Significance at the 5% Level Isn’t Magical

Statistical Controversies: Should Hypothesis Tests Be Banned?

Beware of Searching for Significance

Inference as Decision*

Chapter 23: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

Macmillan Learning Online Resources

Check the Basics

Chapter 23 Exercises

What’s the Verdict?

**24 Two-Way Tables and the Chi-Square Test∗**

Case Study: Freedom of Speech and Political Beliefs

Two-Way Tables

Inference for a Two-Way Table

The Chi-Square Test

Using the Chi-Square Test

Simpson’s Paradox

Chapter 24: Statistics in Summary

Link It

Case Study Evaluated

Macmillan Learning Online Resources

Check the Basics

Chapter 24 Exercises

**Part IV Review**

Part IV Summary

Part IV Review Exercises

Solutions to Now It’s Your Turn Exercises

Answers to Odd-Numbered Exercises

Resolving the Controversy

Index

Table A Random digits

Table B Percentiles of the Normal distributions

**Available online at ****www.macmillanlearning.com/scc10e****:**

Notes and Data Sources