Statistics: Concepts and Controversies by David S. Moore; WIlliam I Notz - Tenth Edition, 2020 from Macmillan Student Store

Statistics: Concepts and Controversies

Tenth  Edition©2020  David S. Moore; WIlliam I Notz

ISBN:9781319272487

ISBN:9781319395056

ISBN:9781319272623

ISBN:9781319109028

ISBN:9781319411152

ISBN:9781319411145

About

Every educated person should be acquainted with statistical reasoning. This book will enable you to make that acquaintance.


Statistics Concepts and Controversies isn’t about the tools of statistics, it’s  a book on statistical ideas and statistical reasoning and on their relevance to public policy and to the human sciences from medicine to sociology.  Welcome to a liberal approach to learning and applying statistics!

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Table of Contents

Contents

To the Teacher: Statistics as a Liberal Discipline
SaplingPlus for Statistics
Acknowledgments
Prelude: Making Sense of Statistics
Statistics and You: What Lies ahead in This Book
About the Authors

PART I Producing Data
1 Where Do Data Come From?
Case Study: An Online Poll
Talking about Data: Individuals and Variables
Observational Studies
Sample Surveys
Census
Experiments
Chapter 1: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 1 Exercises 

2 Samples, Good and Bad
Case Study: Assessing Polls
How to Sample Badly
Simple Random Samples 
Can You Trust a Sample?
Chapter 2: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 2 Exercises

3 What Do Samples Tell Us?
Case Study: Childhood Vaccinations
From Sample to Population
Sampling Variability
Margin of Error and All That
Confidence Statements
Sampling from Large Populations
Statistical Controversies: Should Election Polls Be Banned?
Chapter 3: Statistics in Summary 
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 3 Exercises

4 Sample Surveys in the Real World
Case Study: Obtaining a Sample for a Survey
How Sample Surveys Go Wrong
Sampling Errors
Nonsampling Errors
Wording Questions
How to Live with Nonsampling Errors 
Sample Design in the Real World 
The Challenge of Internet Surveys
Statistical Controversies: The Harris Online Poll 
Probability Samples 
Questions to Ask Before You Believe a Poll
Chapter 4: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated 
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 4 Exercises
What’s the Verdict?

5 Experiments, Good and Bad
Case Study: Online vs. Traditional Courses 
Talking about Experiments
How to Experiment Badly
Randomized Comparative Experiments
The Logic of Experimental Design
Statistical Significance
How to Live with Observational Studies
Chapter 5: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 5 Exercises
What’s the Verdict?

6 Experiments in the Real World
Case Study: Caffeine Dependence
Equal Treatment for All
Double-Blind Experiments
Refusals, Nonadherers, and Dropouts
Can We Generalize?
Experimental Design in the Real World
Matched Pairs and Block Designs
Statistical Controversies: Is It or Isn’t It a Placebo?
Chapter 6: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 6 Exercises
What’s the Verdict?

7 Data Ethics
Case Study: Marijuana and Driving Performance
First Principles
Institutional Review Boards
Informed Consent
Confidentiality
Clinical Trials
Statistical Controversies: Hope for Sale?
Behavioral and Social Science Experiments
Chapter 7: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 7 Exercises
What’s the Verdict?

8 Measuring
Case Study: Measuring Intelligence
Measurement Basics
Know Your Variables
Measurements, Valid and Invalid
Statistical Controversies: Six-Year Graduation Rates, High School GPA, and Standardized Tests
Measurements, Accurate and Inaccurate
Improving Reliability, Reducing Bias
Measuring Psychological and Social Factors 
Chapter 8: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 8 Exercises

9 Do the Numbers Make Sense?
Case Study: Estimating Crowd Size 
What Didn’t They Tell Us?
Are the Numbers Consistent with Each Other?
Are the Numbers Plausible?
Are the Numbers Too Good to Be True?
Is the Arithmetic Right?
Is There a Hidden Agenda? 
Chapter 9: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 9 Exercises

Part I Review
Part I Summary
Part I Review Exercises

PART II Organizing Data
10 Graphs, Good and Bad
Case Study: Leading Causes of Death
Data Tables
Types of Variables
Pie Charts and Bar Graphs
Beware the Pictogram
Change over Time: Line Graphs
Watch those Scales!
Making Good Graphs
Chapter 10: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 10 Exercises
What’s the Verdict? 

11 Displaying Distributions with Graphs
Case Study: Apartment Rental Prices
Histograms
Interpreting Histograms
Stemplots
Chapter 11: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 11 Exercises

12 Describing Distributions with Numbers
Case Study: Education and Income
Median and Quartiles
The Five-Number Summary and Boxplots
Statistical Controversies: Income Inequality
Mean and Standard Deviation
Choosing Numerical Descriptions
Chapter 12: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 12 Exercises

13 Normal Distributions
Case Study: Applying the Normal Distribution to Data
Density Curves
The Center and Variability of a Density Curve
Normal Distributions
The 68–95–99.7 Rule
Standard Scores
Percentiles of Normal Distributions*
Chapter 13: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 13 Exercises

14 Describing Relationships: Scatterplots and Correlation
Case Study: SAT Scores
Scatterplots
Interpreting Scatterplots
Multiple Variables
Correlation
Understanding Correlation
Chapter 14: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 14 Exercises
What’s the Verdict?

15 Describing Relationships: Regression, Prediction, and Causation
Case Study: Housing Prices
Regression Lines
Regression Equations
Understanding Prediction
Correlation and Regression
The Question of Causation
Statistical Controversies: Gun Control
Evidence for Causation
Correlation, Prediction, and Big Data
Chapter 15: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 15 Exercises
What’s the Verdict?

16 The Consumer Price Index and Government Statistics
Case Study: Who’s the Greatest Basketball Player of All Time?
Index Numbers
Fixed Market Basket Price Indexes
Using the CPI
Understanding the CPI
Statistical Controversies: Does the CPI Overstate Inflation?
The Place of Government Statistics
The Question of Social Statistics
Chapter 16: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 16 Exercises
What’s the Verdict? 

Part II Review
Part II Summary
Part II Review Exercises

PART III Chance
17 Thinking about Chance
Case Study: Shared Birthdays
The Idea of Probability
The Ancient History of Chance
Myths about Chance Behavior
Personal Probabilities
Probability and Risk
Chapter 17: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 17 Exercises

18 Probability Models
Case Study: Super Bowl Probabilities
Probability Models
Probability Rules
Probability and Odds
Probability Models for Sampling
Chapter 18: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 18 Exercises
What’s the Verdict?

19 Simulation
Case Study: Luck or Cheating?
Where Do Probabilities Come From?
Simulation Basics
Thinking about Independence
More Elaborate Simulations
Chapter 19: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 19 Exercises

20 The House Edge: Expected Values
Case Study: Better Betting?
Expected Values
The Law of Large Numbers
Thinking about Expected Values
Statistical Controversies: The State of Legalized Gambling
Finding Expected Values by Simulation
Chapter 20: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 20 Exercises
What’s the Verdict?

Part III Review
Part III Summary
Part III Review Exercises

PART IV Inference
21 What Is a Confidence Interval?
Case Study: Social Media Use
Estimating
Estimating with Confidence
Understanding Confidence Intervals
More on Confidence Intervals for a Population Proportion∗
The Sampling Distribution of a Sample Mean∗
Confidence Intervals for a Population Mean*
Chapter 21: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 21 Exercises

22 What Is a Test of Significance?
Case Study: Political Views
The Reasoning of Statistical Tests of Significance
Hypotheses and P-values
Statistical Significance
Calculating P-values∗
Tests for a Population Mean∗
Chapter 22: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 22 Exercises

23 Use and Abuse of Statistical Inference
Case Study: Boys and Breakfast Ceral
Using Inference Wisely
The Woes of Significance Tests
The Advantages of Confidence Intervals
Significance at the 5% Level Isn’t Magical
Statistical Controversies: Should Hypothesis Tests Be Banned?
Beware of Searching for Significance
Inference as Decision*
Chapter 23: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 23 Exercises
What’s the Verdict?

24 Two-Way Tables and the Chi-Square Test∗
Case Study: Freedom of Speech and Political Beliefs
Two-Way Tables
Inference for a Two-Way Table
The Chi-Square Test
Using the Chi-Square Test
Simpson’s Paradox
Chapter 24: Statistics in Summary
Link It
Case Study Evaluated
Macmillan Learning Online Resources
Check the Basics
Chapter 24 Exercises

Part IV Review
Part IV Summary
Part IV Review Exercises

Solutions to Now It’s Your Turn Exercises
Answers to Odd-Numbered Exercises
Resolving the Controversy
Index
Table A Random digits
Table B Percentiles of the Normal distributions

Available online at www.macmillanlearning.com/scc10e:
Notes and Data Sources

David S. Moore

David S. Moore is Shanti S. Gupta Distinguished Professor of Statistics, Emeritus, at Purdue University and was 1998 president of the American Statistical Association. He received his AB from Princeton and his PhD from Cornell, both in mathematics. He has written many research papers in statistical theory and served on the editorial boards of several major journals. Professor Moore is an elected fellow of the American Statistical Association and of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and an elected member of the International Statistical Institute. He has served as program director for statistics and probability at the National Science Foundation.

In recent years, Professor Moore has devoted his attention to the teaching of statistics. He was the content developer for the Annenberg/Corporation for Public Broadcasting college-level telecourse Against All Odds: Inside Statistics and for the series of video modules Statistics: Decisions through Data, intended to aid the teaching of statistics in schools. He is the author of influential articles on statistics education and of several leading texts. Professor Moore has served as president of the International Association for Statistical Education and has received the Mathematical Association of America’s national award for distinguished college or university teaching of mathematics.

William I. Notz

William I. Notz is Professor of Statistics at the Ohio State University. He received his B.S. in physics from the Johns Hopkins University and his Ph.D. in mathematics from Cornell University. His first academic job was as an assistant professor in the Department of Statistics at Purdue University. While there, he taught the introductory concepts course with Professor Moore and as a result of this experience he developed an interest in statistical education. Professor Notz is a co-author of EESEE (the Electronic Encyclopedia of Statistical Examples and Exercises) and co-author of Statistics: Concepts and Controversies.
Professor Notz’s research interests have focused on experimental design and computer experiments. He is the author of several research papers and of a book on the design and analysis of computer experiments. He is an elected fellow of the American Statistical Association. He has served as the editor of the journal Technometrics and as editor of the Journal of Statistics Education. He has served as the Director of the Statistical Consulting Service, as acting chair of the Department of Statistics for a year, and as an Associate Dean in the College of Mathematical and Physical Sciences at the Ohio State University. He is a winner of the Ohio State University’s Alumni Distinguished Teaching Award.